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BitVault Analytics

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Bitcoin Intelligence v3.4.0
Model Version 3.4.0
12-category weighted scoring with Geopolitical + Tail Risk defense (PhD-validated 40K bootstrap). Trained on Apr 2020 - Dec 2025 data.
Accuracy58.4%
Quality Score80/100

Quantitative signal scoring with confidence intervals and position sizing

1 Click "Generate Analysis" to run the 10-category signal
Signal Categories (v3.3.1)
Technical (3.68), Sentiment (1.67), Weekend Effect (0.53, 2x=1.06 during Fri-Mon), Momentum (0.18), Supply-Side (0.21), Google Trends (0.03), Macro (0.06), Derivatives (0.15), Flow (0.01), Regulatory (0.05). Weights from Wild Bootstrap OLS (10k iterations).
 methodology across real-time market data.
2 Fetches from 14+ sources: CoinGlass
CoinGlass Data
Provides funding rates, open interest, liquidation data, and put/call ratios for derivatives analysis.
, Hashrate Index
Hashrate Index
Mining economics data including hashprice ($USD/PH/day) and hash ribbon status for miner capitulation detection.
, Fear & Greed
Fear & Greed Index
Contrarian sentiment indicator (0-100). Extreme Fear (<20) has 72% hit rate. Extreme Greed (>80) has 31% hit rate.
, ETF flows, and more.
3 Outputs: Signal with 80% confidence interval
Confidence Interval
Range where the true signal value likely falls. Width determined by model uncertainty, regime confidence, and data quality. Wider CI = less certainty.
, probability estimate
Probability Estimate
Probability of positive 30D return using logistic transformation (P = 1/(1+exp(-0.8×signal))). Bounded at 30%-85% — we can never be 100% certain.
, and Kelly-derived position size
Kelly Criterion
Optimal bet sizing: f = (p×b - q) / b. Applied with half-Kelly (0.50), model uncertainty (0.80), transaction costs (0.85), and behavioral buffer (0.82). Max position: 10%.
.
Sources: Macro Intelligence | Lyn Alden | Willy Woo | Federal Reserve | CheckOnChain
STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Key On-Chain Accumulation Signal
Loading STH signal...
Source: CheckOnChain
● Ratio < 0 = Accumulation Zone ● Ratio 0-1 = Neutral ● Ratio > 1 = Sell Territory

Model Performance

Track signal accuracy & profitability

Simulated P/L
--
Following signals
Position Size
--
Based on signal
Hit Rate
--
Correct predictions
Signal Streak
--
Consecutive days
Position Sizing Rules (Signal-Based)
Strong Buy (≥1.0): 100%
Buy (0.5-1.0): 75%
Accumulate (0.25-0.5): 50%
Neutral (-0.25 to 0.25): Hold
Sell (≤-0.25): Reduce
vs Buy & Hold: --
Data Points: --

Bottom Line

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Bitcoin Market
BTC Price
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24h Change
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vs yesterday
7d Change
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vs last week
24h Volume
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Trading activity
Fear & Greed
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--
Institutional & On-Chain Flows
ETF Flow (7D)
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--
ETF Flow (30D)
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--
Exchange Netflow
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30-day aggregate
Fed Rate Cut Prob
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--
Institutional & On-Chain Flows
ETF Flow Executive Summary
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Analyzing institutional positioning...
7 Days
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30 Days
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YTD 2025
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All-Time
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BlackRock IBIT
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Grayscale GBTC
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Institutional Sentiment
Analyzing flow patterns...
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Daily ETF Flows
Last 7 trading days (USD millions)
DateTotalIBITFBTCARKBBITBGBTC
Arkham Whale Intelligence
Whale Exchange Flow Analysis
Tracking 50 major BTC whales (MSTR, BlackRock, Fidelity, Coinbase + 46 more)
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Whale Bias
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Reliability
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🔴 Sell Pressure
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🟢 Accumulation
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Executive Summary

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Top 20 Whales by 24h Volume

Entity 24h BTC 24h USD Direction Top Destination Interpretation
Data source: Arkham Intelligence
Macro Correlation Analysis
BTC vs ISM PMI vs Fed Balance Sheet
4-Year Historical Correlation
4Y DATA
Key Insight
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QT Period
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Peak Balance
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Current Balance
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QT Removed
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U.S. Economic Indicators
Key macro data points
IndicatorValueDateSignal
Macro Environment
Cross-Asset Performance
Key macro indicators
DXY (Dollar Index)
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Gold (XAU/USD)
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S&P 500
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10Y Treasury
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VIX (Volatility)
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Central Bank Rates
Global monetary policy
Fed (USD)
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ECB (EUR)
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BoE (GBP)
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BoJ (JPY)
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PBoC (CNY)
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Polymarket Predictions
Bitcoin Price Predictions
Probability markets via Polymarket API
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Market Narrative
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Market Intelligence Report
Bitcoin ETF Institutional Flow Analysis
Updated daily from Farside Investors data
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7-Day
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30-Day
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YTD
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All-Time
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Executive Summary

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30-Day Flow Analysis vs YTD

Metric 30-Day YTD Context

Monthly Flow Pattern (2025)

Month Net Flow IBIT GBTC Days

Current Market Context

Factor Status Impact Assessment

Institutional Adoption Assessment

Bullish Factors
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Bearish Factors
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6-Month Forecast

Scenario Probability Net Flows Key Drivers

Key Catalysts to Watch

Catalyst Timing Potential Impact

🏦 Fed Liquidity Alert BULLISH

Balance Sheet
$7.2T
+$350B from cycle low
QE Pace
+$60B/mo
Expansion since Sep 2025
Net Liquidity
$6.1T
+12% YoY
Liquidity Tailwind: Fed pivoted to QE. Every prior QE cycle (2009, 2012, 2020) preceded major BTC rallies. Expanding balance sheet = risk-on environment. Net liquidity (Fed BS - TGA - RRP) is the key metric — currently expanding.
Sources: Federal Reserve, FRED
Liquidation Risk Assessment
BitVault Loan Position
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CALCULATING
--%
Calculating...
Monte Carlo (60%) + Polymarket (40%)
Current Price
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Drop to Liq
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Margin Call
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Liquidation
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Days Left
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MC Prob
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5th Percentile
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Median
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Risk Analysis
Running Monte Carlo simulation...
BitVault Protocol
Total TVL
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BTC TVL
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Protocol holdings
sbvUSD APY
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Current yield
30D Performance
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vs BTC
Price Performance
30-day BitVault vs BTC
Market Signals
Aggregated indicator summary
Fear & Greed Loading...
ETF Demand Loading...
Exchange Flow Loading...
ISM Manufacturing Loading...
Fed Policy Bias Loading...
Market Insight
Analyzing market conditions...