BitVault 2026 Strategy

Strategic Roadmap for Institutional BTC-Native Yield

Executive Summary

BitVault 2026 strategy: Become the institutional standard for BTC-native yield through the BTC Yield Fund, scaling to $350M AUM (base target) and $3.6M revenue.

Strategic Phased Approach

Team consensus: The stablecoin isn't off the table — it's sequenced. AUM comes first.

PHASE 1 — CURRENT

Grow AUM via BTC Yield Vault

Native Bitcoin deposits

PHASE 2 — AFTER CRITICAL MASS

Launch BTC-Backed Stablecoin

sbvUSD once AUM target hit

PHASE 3 — LONG TERM

Internal Capital Management

Build proprietary capabilities

Governance Token: $BVAULT

BitVault will launch $BVAULT, a governance token to align long-term incentives between the protocol and depositors.

Total Supply

30%

Community

2%+

LP Incentive APY

$350M

Target FDV

Governance: Vote on protocol parameters, strategy allocations, and fee structures
Revenue Staking: Stake $BVAULT to receive share of 10% protocol performance fees
Fee Discounts: Hold $BVAULT for up to 50% reduction in protocol fees
Points Program: Early depositors earn points convertible to $BVAULT at TGE

AUM Breakdown: $150M in stablecoins + $50M in BTC deployed with capital managers + $150M BTC collateral (at 50% LTV)

Core Revenue Formula: Deployed Capital × Net Spread + Performance Fees + Chain Incentives

Stack 6+ BTC credit lines (50-500 BTC each at 50% LTV) to reach $150M stablecoin capacity
Deploy $50M BTC with managers for native BTC yield strategies (3% target return)
Capture 2 chain incentive grants at 1.5% APY on $50M (Plume + Monad/Katana)
Implement 20% performance fee overall
$BVAULT token incentives (2%+ additional APY at $350M FDV) for early depositors

Q1 2026 Commitments

enzoBTC Onboarding: Scale to $20-30M within Q1
BGBTC Scaling: Continue growth alongside enzoBTC
Liquid Fund Partnerships: Onboard 1-2 funds committing $2-5M each
HK & Denver Events: Target 2 deals ($10M+ each) from conference pipeline
Plume Grant: Finalize proposal for sbvUSD integration

Q1 2026 Priority: Frontloading collateral and capital deployment is critical. Early capital accumulation maximizes time-weighted returns, locks in favorable credit terms before market conditions shift, and establishes operational momentum ahead of potential Fed policy transitions. Every month of delayed deployment represents ~$150K in foregone revenue at target AUM.

1. Strategic Objective & Revenue Target

Base Target: $350M AUM = $150M stables + $50M BTC deployed + $150M BTC collateral

Revenue Target: $200M deployed capital × net spread + levers = $3.6M Total Revenue

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Component	Amount	Driver
Stables spread ($150M deployed)	$1.5M	$150M × 1% (15% return - 7% borrow - 7% LP hurdle)
BTC spread ($50M deployed)	$0.75M	$50M × 1.5% (3% return on native BTC strategies)
Chain incentives	+$1.0M	2 grants × 1.5% APY on $33M each (H2 deployment)
Performance fees	+$0.35M	20% on LP returns above 10%
Total Revenue	$3.6M

Mission: Establish BTC Yield Fund as institutional standard, driving sbvUSD demand through superior risk-adjusted returns.

2. Core Revenue Flywheel

BitVault's revenue strategy compounds across five tightly integrated stages:

BTC Requirements for $350M AUM:
At 50% LTV and $100K BTC price: $150M stables requires $300M in BTC collateral = 3,000 BTC
Plus $50M BTC deployed with managers = 500 BTC
Total: 3,500 BTC ($350M AUM)

Access Collateral

Secure BTC & wrappers (WBTC, bgBTC, enzoBTC)

Borrow BTC vs BTC

50-500 BTC at optimal rates

Borrow Stables

~7% weighted avg cost

Deploy via Managers

$150M stables (15%) + $50M BTC (3%)

Capture Spread + Fees

~1% (stables) / ~1.5% (BTC) + 20% perf fee

This is a repeatable, high-margin engine for BTC-native DeFi.

3. Revenue Optimization Levers

3.1 Cost of Capital Optimization (+$0.5M)

Constraint: Credit line providers allocate 50-500 BTC per deal at 50% LTV. At $100K BTC: 500 BTC = $50M collateral → $25M stablecoins max per provider.

Stack 6+ credit lines to reach $150M stablecoin capacity
Negotiate relationship rates for repeat business (7% vs 8%)
Structure 12-month rate locks vs. 180-day cycles

3.2 Manager Yield & Spread Capture (+$2.25M)

Stables: ~1% net spread ($150M) | BTC: ~1.5% net spread ($50M)

BitVault keeps excess above LP hurdle

Stables ($150M): 15% return - 7% borrow - 7% LP hurdle = 1% to BitVault = $1.5M
BTC ($50M): 3% return (on native BTC strategies) × 1.5% spread = $0.75M
Revenue model: Returns above LP hurdle (after borrow cost) flow to BitVault
Quarterly allocation review - shift capital to best performers

3.3 Chain Incentive Capture (+$1.0M)

Opportunity: 2 TVL grants available at ~1.5% APY each on ~$33M per chain. Prioritize Plume + one of Monad/Katana.

Deploy ~$66M across 2 incentivized chains
1.5% APY × $33M × 2 = $1.0M
Hedge native token exposure to lock in USD value
Structure as yield enhancement on top of base spread

3.4 Performance Fee Structure (+$0.35M)

20% Performance Fee on LP Returns Above 10%

Upside on outperformance

0% fee on LP returns up to 10%
20% fee on LP returns above 10%
Example: If LPs earn 12%, fee = 2% × 20% × $200M deployed = ~$0.8M potential

4. Top Strategic Priorities

4.1 Credit Line Expansion → Q1 PRIORITY

ACTION: Negotiate competitive rates with multiple lending desks
Target Rate: ~7% weighted average borrow cost (vs 8% market rate)
Proof Point: Deliver >2% net return in Q1 to enable renewals and expansion
Relationships: Galaxy, FalconX, Auros, GSR, QCP, Flowdesk, Caladan

4.2 BTC Credit Line Stacking → 6+ LINES BY Q3

Reality: 50-500 BTC per provider at 50% LTV = need 6+ lines for $150M stablecoin capacity
Timeline: Jan negotiate → Q1 close 2-3 lines → Q2-Q3 scale to 6+
Rates: Target ~7% weighted avg (vs 8% market rate)
Providers: gtBTC, enzoBTC, kBTC; avoid Matrixport/Hemi

4.3 Manager Negotiations → MAXIMIZE SPREAD

Stables ($150M): Target 15%+ returns, 7% LP hurdle → ~1% net to BitVault
BTC ($50M): Target 3%+ returns on native BTC strategies → ~1.5% net to BitVault
Revenue model: BitVault pays borrow cost, LPs receive hurdle, BitVault keeps remainder
Managers: Auros, LM5, GSR, Fasanara (basis trades, arb, private credit)

5. Market Expansion

Multi-Chain: Deploy on chains hunting for TVL - Plume, Monad, Katana
Chain Incentives: Secure 2 TVL grants at 1.5% APY each (~$66M deployed)
Asia Priority: Build LP relationships with exchanges, funds, family offices
Positioning: Establish sbvUSD as preferred "real yield" product in Asia

6. Quarterly Projections

Cumulative AUM Growth (2026)

Cumulative Revenue Growth (2026)

7. Key Metrics

Metric	Target
Total AUM	$350M ($150M stables + $50M BTC deployed + $150M BTC collateral)
Deployed Capital	$200M ($150M stables + $50M BTC with managers)
Total Revenue	$3.6M (spread + chain incentives + perf fees)
BTC Credit Lines	6+ (50-500 BTC each at 50% LTV for $150M stables)
LP Hurdle Rate	7% (stables) / 2.5% (BTC) - what LPs receive
Target Returns	15% (stables) / 3% (BTC)
Net Spread to BitVault	~1% (stables) / ~1.5% (BTC)
Performance Fee	20% on LP returns above 10%
Chain Incentives	2 grants at 1.5% APY (~$66M deployed)
Institutional Partners	10+ (3+ Asia LPs)

8. Organizational Focus

Function	2026 Priorities
Growth / BD	6+ credit lines (Q1-Q3), 2 chain grants, Asia LP base, HK & Denver events ($10M+ per deal)
Capital Ops	Maximize manager returns (15%+ stables, 4%+ BTC), manage LP hurdles (7% / 2.5%), quarterly review
Legal / Risk	Performance fee structure, LP agreements, underwriting standards, compliance
Engineering	TBD
Product / Design	TBD
Marketing	TBD

9. Strategic Recommendations & Market Analysis

Independent analysis of additional revenue optimization strategies and macro market considerations.

9.1 Macro Environment & Fed Policy Impact

Critical Insight: The Fed Balance Sheet is the leading indicator for BTC price action. BitVault's 2026 strategy must account for monetary policy regime shifts.

ISM Manufacturing vs BTC Price vs Fed Rate Correlation

QE Cycles: Fed balance sheet expansion drives liquidity into risk assets — BTC historically rallies 200-400% during QE periods
QT Impact: ~$2.25T removed during June 2022 - Dec 2025 QT cycle; BTC compressed despite ETF inflows
ISM Signal: PMI below 50 (contraction) historically precedes Fed pivot to easing — watch for Q1-Q2 2026 inflection
2026 Outlook: If QT ends and QE resumes, expect significant BTC appreciation — plan for collateral value increase

9.2 Revenue Optimization Opportunities

A. Dynamic LTV Management

+$0.5-1.0M potential

Opportunity: During Fed easing cycles when BTC appreciation is likely, negotiate higher LTV ratios (55-60%) with credit providers. This unlocks additional stablecoin borrowing capacity without requiring more BTC collateral.

Monitor ISM PMI and Fed balance sheet weekly for regime change signals
Pre-negotiate conditional LTV increases with top 3 credit providers
Model: 10% LTV increase on $300M collateral = $30M additional deployment capacity

B. Basis Trade Optimization During Volatility

+$0.3-0.5M potential

Opportunity: Fed policy transitions create elevated futures basis spreads. Instruct managers to increase basis trade allocation during high-volatility windows (typically 15-25% annualized vs. 8-12% baseline).

Target 20%+ of stables deployment to basis trades during FOMC volatility periods
Coordinate with Auros/GSR for rapid reallocation when spreads exceed 15% annualized
Historical data: Basis spreads averaged 18% during March 2024 FOMC uncertainty

C. Institutional Treasury Product

+$0.5-1.5M potential

Opportunity: Corporate treasuries holding BTC (MicroStrategy model) need yield without selling. Offer white-label bvUSD minting with custom LP hurdles for $10M+ deposits.

Target 3-5 corporate treasury relationships at $20M+ each
Custom fee structure: 50bps management fee + 15% performance fee (vs. retail 20%)
Pipeline: Bitcoin miners, public companies with BTC holdings, crypto-native funds

D. RWA Integration for Yield Diversification

+$0.2-0.4M potential

Opportunity: Allocate 10-15% of stables to tokenized T-bills/money market funds as yield floor during crypto market downturns. Provides 4-5% baseline when DeFi yields compress.

Partners: Ondo Finance (USDY), Backed Finance, Centrifuge
Use as tactical allocation when basis spreads fall below 8%
Regulatory consideration: Structure as separate vehicle if needed for compliance

9.3 Market Timing Recommendations

Macro Scenario	Indicators	BitVault Action
QE Resumes / Fed Pivot	ISM < 48, Fed balance sheet expanding	Accelerate TVL growth, negotiate higher LTVs, increase BTC deployment allocation
Neutral / Transition	ISM 48-52, Fed on hold	Execute baseline plan, focus on operational efficiency and spread optimization
QT Continues / Hawkish Fed	ISM > 52, Fed balance sheet contracting	Conservative LTV (45%), increase RWA allocation, focus on institutional treasury clients

9.4 Competitive Moat Enhancement

Data Advantage: Build proprietary macro dashboard correlating Fed policy, ISM, and BTC — offer to LPs as value-add
First-Mover on Chains: Secure exclusive TVL grant terms before competitors on Plume/Monad — 6-month lockup for better rates
Manager Exclusivity: Negotiate right-of-first-refusal on new strategy capacity with top 2 managers
Institutional Brand: Position BitVault as "macro-aware" yield infrastructure — differentiate from pure DeFi competitors

Summary: Implementing these strategies could add $1.5-3.5M in incremental revenue beyond the $3.6M baseline, bringing total 2026 revenue potential to $5.1-7.1M under favorable macro conditions.

10. Competitive Edge

Key differentiators identified through team alignment:

CRO Network

Direct relationships with BTC wrapper providers, exchanges, and institutional LPs

$BVAULT Incentives

2%+ additional APY at $350M FDV for early depositors

Stablecoin Roadmap

Credible Phase 2 narrative for sbvUSD launch post-AUM target

Integration Demand

Derive, Vertex/INK chain already seeking integration

Strategy Lock: This phased approach is the locked vision for 12 months. No more pivots mid-quarter. CRO has decision authority on deals within their network. Engineering prioritized on GTM-critical items only.

11. Team Suggestions

Summary of the 2026 Strategy discussion and key recommendations from the team.

11.1 Strategic Direction: Stablecoin vs. BTC Yield Fund

If BitVault uses Liquity V2 to launch a stablecoin, only real BTC wrappers would be acceptable, which creates direct competition with Everlong on Katana.
Because BitVault already has an advantage with bgBTC and enzoBTC, the recommendation is to:
- Continue scaling the BTC Yield Fund
- Complete all internal requirements for the stablecoin launch
- Launch the stablecoin without Liquity V2, following the Stablecoin (bvUSD) Launch Requirements below

11.2 Curator & Incentive Strategy

BitVault should evaluate becoming its own curator on an incentivized chain
Priority: Bring bgBTC to Morpho on Katana—or identify another chain with strong incentive potential
Two major incentive programs must be designed:
- High incentives for real Bitcoin wrappers
- Morpho-specific incentives for bgBTC-type wrappers
Manny will model budget and token emissions, acknowledging that significant governance token spend will be required

11.3 Stablecoin (bvUSD) Launch Requirements

The following defines strict pre-launch conditions for bvUSD:

A. Revenue

Demonstrated $75K+ gross monthly revenue for 3 consecutive months before launching bvUSD.

B. Market Maker Readiness

GSR prepared to trade with a $15K/month retainer.

C. Liquidity Targets

$2M bvUSD/USDC liquidity to support adequate market depth
Target 6-month contractual liquidity arrangements
Stablecoin LPs must be incentivized using BVAULT

D. Perpetuals Infrastructure

100K bvUSD/USDC pool on a Perp DEX.

E. Incentive Architecture

Higher governance token rewards for BTC wrappers on Aave
Lower rewards for wrappers not on Aave

F. Resourcing

A dedicated bvUSD manager is required — minimum candidate: Andrea.